EURUSD and S&P outlook

The dollar has printed 4 waves to the downside in the 60 minute chart. We should expect a waves 5 now. If this occurs the support for the emini S&P is the open up gap printed on 9 November. The closure of the gap would be negative.

Markets Outlook (EWU, EWJ, EWC, EWG, EWA) - 12 November

iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index (ETF) (EWU)


iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (EWJ)


iShares MSCI Canada Index (ETF) (EWC)


iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (ETF) (EWG)


iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (ETF) (EWA)

Emerging Markets Outlook - 12 November

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (ETF) (EPI)


iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ)


iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI)


iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)


Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX)

Commodities Outlook 12 November

Market Vectors Agribusiness (ETF) (MOO)


PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)


SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (ETF) (XME)


United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL)

Metals and Energy Outlook - 12 November

Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (DBB)


Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLE)


PowerShares DB Com Indx Trckng Fund(ETF) (DBC)


United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)


SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG)

The force Index indicator is negative both in the daily and the weekly chart. Interesting positive divergences in both timeframes. Prices is very close to new lows
Hard to say if and when there will be a reversal. I am concerned because while I see natural gas printing new lows, oil is moving higher. I guess the ratio oil/gas is very interesting now. What happens to gas prices when the expected correction in commodities occurs? However, I think gas is an interesting opportunity at these levels for a contrarian trade although I do not see a specific setup yet.

China Bears

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Pollution, pollution
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Eurusd: Close to recent high

Support at 1.495.

Emini S&P Testing Previous High

After the impressive up gap and the trend day, the emini is getting closer recent high. A correction on Tuesday is expected or at least an intraday pullback (6 points at 75%). Only the closure of the open gap at about 1070 could signal a change of trend

DJIA Market Wrap 8 November

The 60-minute trend is positive according to the force index indicator. %b has printed a slightly negative divergence. On Monday morning prices will open up on a gap that will test previous high. The Dow is also doing much better than the Nasdaq in this phase. Most of the stocks are moving above their 20-day moving averages and the trend is very good in the longer term moving averages. HPQ, MCD, PG printed new 20-day highs. MCD has printed 5 and IBM has printed 4 consecutive up closes. I remain negative on the market and will need to assess how high this move will continue. I am opening some shorts at this point although I am aware the Dow is moving again to print new highs.


In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), American International Group Inc (AIG), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), General Motors Corp (GM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS).

Nasdaq Market Wrap 8 November

The 60-minute trend is up according to the force index indicator. %b has printed a slightly negative divergence. Prices last week printed an impressive of 5 cnsecutive up days and now they restesting the rising trendline. 1749 and 1775 the resistance. Support at 1650. Then 1590. Prices are now testing the lower trendline of a channel that prices are forming. AKAM, AMZN, COST, QCOM, SBUX printed new 20-day highs. JAVA printed a 20-day low. EBAY and GILD printed 5 and GOOG 4 consecutive up closes. I remain negative on the market and will need to assess how high this move will continue. I am opening some shorts at this point although I am aware the market could attempt to print new highs.


In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.


The stocks object of screening are:
Apple Computer Inc (AAPL), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Broadcom (BRCM), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Cisco Systems(CSCO),Dell Inc (DELL), EchoStar Communications (DISH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Genzyme Corporation (GENZ), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Google Inc (GOOG), Intel Corporation (INTC), Sun Microsystems Inc (JAVA), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Microsoft (MSFT), Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (SIRI), Tellabs Inc (TLAB), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), Yahoo (YHOO)

Technical Analysis Around the World

Technical analysis is not consistently profitable in the 49 countries that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that technical analysis compliments other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation.

Ben R. Marshall*, Rochester H. Cahan, Jared M. Cahan

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Eurusd: Moving sideways

The US Dollar has tested again the 1.49 level. Note the negative divergence of the %b indicator.